TIMES Integrated Assessment Model
for ETSAP contracting parties
» Sign a letter of agreement (LoA) with the Operating Agent
o Username/password for download will be provided after this step
» Have a licensed version of VEDA_FE on the machine. This must be version 4.3.40 or higher.
The above link provides:
· Model documentation
· Results for the Reference and two climate scenarios
o The model
o VEDA_BE input files
o VEDA_BE sets and tables definitions
· Link to the TIAM users forum
Here is an overview of the main enhancements done since the last delivery of ETSAP-TIAM.
The new version of ETSAP-TIAM reflects:
· The database used for the analysis of renewable energy and climate scenarios for the Renewable Energy Technology Deployment (RETD, partially supported by ETSAP);
· Several additional adjustments done after the RETD work and that we consider important to share with the ETSAP community.
It includes the same 15 regions as included in previous versions of ETSAP-TIAM.
Results for the following scenarios are available online:
- Reference case (ET_Ref_1303)
- Maximum radiative forcing of LLGHG of 3.5 W/m2 over the entire time horizon (ET_RF3p5_1303)
- Maximum radiative forcing of LLGHG of 4.5 W/m2 over the entire time horizon (ET_RF4p5_1303)
Reminder: In these runs, the climate constraint concerns long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHG) only. It doesn’t include the negative forcing (cooling effects) by aerosols. In other words, the temperature results cannot be relied upon since all radiative forcings are not included. Moreover, such a target must be considered as stricter than a target including all radiative forcings. The user can change these assumptions as wanted (see the Climate section of this Manual).
- radiative forcing of LLGHG of 3.5 W/m2 is equivalent to around 450 ppmv of CO2 only (530 ppmv of CO2-equivalent for all LLGHG's)
- radiative forcing of LLGHG of 4.5 W/m2 is equivalent to around 550 ppmv of CO2 only(640 ppmv of CO2-equivalent for all LLGHG's)
The following list of changes made in the database is not exhaustive, but represents the most important ones.
· Characteristics of power plants (with and without CCS), synthetic fuel conversion, alternative transportation technologies, refineries, have all been updated.
· Lead time periods for capture and sequestration and for enhanced geothermal systems have been added,
· The avoided transport and distribution costs for distributed compared to grid-connected electricity have been introduced.
· Associated gas (i.e. gas produced from oil extraction) represents a sizable portion of natural gas production. The appropriate computation of the associated gas in the cumulative amount of gas available has been implemented. This results in lower total gas resources available (but no drastic changes in results were observed after this change).
· Trade of crude oil and of RPP now fully distinguishes between OPEC and Non-OPEC countries. This is useful when simulating scenarios where OPEC adopts different policies from the rest of oil producers/exporters.
· Installed capacity and activity of biodiesel and bioethanol plants (AL_ALCETH1ST, AL_BIODST1ST, AU_ALCETH, AU_BIODST, AX_ALCETH1ST, AX_BIODST1ST), solar thermal (A_MAXCSP, A_MINCSP), solar photovoltaic (A_MINSOLPV), wind (A_MAXWIND, A_MINWIND) have been updated to reflect the changes between 2005, base year of the model, and 2010.
· 49 solar thermal projects (CSP) that are under construction or planned have been included as individual processes (ESOTH*).
The potential for thermal solar
(CSP) in Africa and Middle-East, as well as the possible export of electricity to
· Biomass resources have been updated. The potentials for energy crops assume, among others, agriculture based on an advanced technology system but without irrigation. The total biomass available in ETSAP-TIAM at the World level was 230 EJ in 2050 before the update; it is now 240 EJ, but the regional potentials show more differences. The use of biomass in 2005 is calibrated to the IEA database.
· Trade of biomass and biofuels is not currently implemented. Trade of any commodity can be easily added with the file ScenTrade__Trade_Links.xls included in the Trade folder.
· Several technologies using biomass have been added, such as: FT Diesel Solid biomass with CO2 capture, First generation biodiesel and second generation bioethanol plants (from cellulosic sources).
· Some constraints on annual growths have been added to avoid too fast substitution or penetration of technologies, such as: primary production of coal (UC_MaxGrowthOfCoalProd), biomass fired power plants (UC_MaxGrowthOfBioELC).
· A constraint on wind penetration is A_MaxGblWindNewCap, the assumed maximum values of World added capacity per year of wind are 30 GW in 2012, 130 GW in 2020.
· A constraint on solar penetration is A_MinGblPVNewCap, the assumend minimum values of World added capacity per year of solar PV: 50 GW in 2020, 60 GW in 2050.
Carbon Capture and Sequestration
· Technology characteristics have been updated. No change in the potentials.
· The limit imposed on the penetration of coal power plants (reflecting local air quality issues) now excludes power plants with CCS, so that it can (and should) now be kept in all scenarios.
· The additional scenario Scen_CCS_limit is provided to the users as a template (available in the SuppXls folder) to limit, if wanted, for the cumulative quantity of CO2 stored in geological and oceanic sinks at the World level.
· Lower and higher nuclear limits by region, have been reduced compared to the previous versions of the model (A_MINNUC, A_MAXNUC).
· The additional scenario Scen_Nuclear is provided to the users as a template (available in SuppXls) to modify, if wanted, the lower and higher limits as defined in A_MINNUC, A_MAXNUC.
· Market shares have been added in some end-use subsectors in order to impart stability to fuel shares (TUC-U_SHR*, TUC-L_SHAR_OIL*, UC_C*, UC_R*).
Non-CO2 emissions from agriculture
· Mitigation options for CH4 and N2O from agriculture are not endogenously modelled. However, the scenario Scen_MitigationAgriculture450 includes reduced emissions from agriculture reflecting the emissions estimated in the World Energy Outlook (2009). It is equivalent to a mitigation scenario with free emission reductions in the agriculture sector. The user may select it or not in the climate scenarios.
The exogenous radiative forcing
trajectory (CM_EXOFORC in Scen_ClimParametersExoForcingLLGHG)
from the radiative agents not endogenously modeled. Its values define the kind
of forcing agents the user wants to include in the radiative forcing equation,
in other words, in the climate module. Its current values correspond to the
Long Lived GHG (other
· No CO2 tax is included in the database. The scenario Scen_CO2Tax is provided to the users as a template (available in SuppXls) to insert a CO2 tax.
· The scenario Scen_ClimRF is provided as a template (available in SuppXls) to put upper limits on future radiative forcing values.
· Mitigation options available in this version of the model make feasible forcing targets as small as 3.0 W/m2 with LLGHG, corresponding to an around 400 ppm CO2 only, and 480 ppm CO2-eq for all LLGHG's.
· A relatively recent feature of TIMES allows a user to model climate constraints even after the 2100 end-of-horizon. Doing so may be desirable in order to avoid end-of-horizon effects. The current assumptions are the following ones (see documentation on the ETSAP website Climate-Beyond-EOH.pdf ):
o In the Reference case, emissions are held constant at the 2100 value up to year 2150 (attribute CM_CONST, commodity EXT-EOH) and then decline linearly to 0 by 2200 (attribute CM_MAXC, commodity CO2-GTC).
o In the climate cases, forcing targets apply after EOH as well (Scen_ClimRF) and the 2150 emissions are assumed to be 4.5 and 3.5 GtC for the RF4p5 and RF3p5 cases respectively.
o The reporting years interval after EOH is 20 (attribute CM_CONST, commodity BEOHMOD)
Appendix: List of files provided for ETSAP-TIAM
Appendix: Scenarios to be included in the base case