This document describes the ECN contribution to Activity 2.3 'Experience from MARKAL and MESSAGE' of the TEEM project and reports on the experience gained with including endogenous technology learning in the energy optimisation model MARKAL. The objective of the TEEM project is to provide new insights for the European Union (EU) energy Research and Technology Development (RTD) strategy, focusing on policy or market induced progress of energy technologies. Activity 2.3 provides methodological recommendations, numerical results and sensitivity analyses for use in other activities of the TEEM project, based on experience with the MARKAL model with endogenous learning.

This report first describes the formulation of learning curves in MARKAL, the basic implementation of which was done by the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI). Some conceptual issues for characterising energy technologies development and introducing technology learning in an energy system model are discussed and used to select technologies with learning from the MARKAL-Europe database. For these selected technologies learning parameters are estimated and introduced in several model cases to test the new endogenous technology learning feature of MARKAL.

The main finding is that a full-scale MARKAL model with learning is able to generate globally optimal solutions efficiently. For an optimal use of the benefits of including technology learning, some model database improvements are recommended, such as re-evaluation of the reference energy system and a well-targeted use of bounds and growth parameters. Sensitivity cases show the large impact of assumed learning parameters on model outcomes. Furthermore, model cases are analysed simulating the impact of R, D&D activities and the introduction of a CO₂ tax on technology learning and thus on the market penetration of technologies.

This report is the deliverable of the ECN contribution to Activity 2.3 'Experience from MARKAL and MESSAGE' of the TEEM project. The ECN contribution to this project has been carried out on behalf of the European Union (in the framework of the Non Nuclear Energy Programme JOULE III), contract JOS3-CT97 0013, and the Dutch Ministery of Economic Affairs (ECN project number 77126).

This report discusses the structure and input data for the biomass module of the MATTER 1.0 model, a MARKAL energy and materials systems engineering model for Western Europe. This model is used for development of energy and materials strategies for greenhouse gas emission reduction in the framework of the MATTER study and the BRED study. Preliminary biomass results are presented in order to identify key processes and key parameters that deserve further analysis.
The results show that the production of biomaterials is an attractive option for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Biomaterials can substitute materials which require a lot of energy for production or they can substitute fossil fuel feed stocks. Increased biomaterial production will result in increasing amounts of waste biomass which can be used for energy production. An increase of the use of biomass for the production of materials needs more attention in the forthcoming BRED analysis.

This report (ECN projectnumbers 7.7018 and 7.7125) is an information document for the MATTER project and for the BRED project (MATTER: MATerials Technologies for greenhouse gas Emission Reduction. BRED: Biomass strategies for greenhouse gas emission REDuction). The MATTER study is sponsored by the Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NOP-MLK). The BRED study is carried out in the framework of the Environment and Climate research programme that is sponsored by the European Community.

The present study focuses on the potential of fusion power in Europe in the 21st century. The study includes two scenarios and more than 60 scenario variants. In the scenario variants the assumptions with respect to CO₂ policy, fossil fuel availability, discount rates, and characteristics of fusion power and competing technologies have been varied. The model used is a MARKAL model of the Western European energy system.

Fusion power is not cost effective in the absence of CO₂ policy, as its generating costs are higher than those of coal-fired power and fission power. Fusion power comes out as a cost-effective option in case of CO₂ reduction policies. Under such circumstances coal-fired power loses market share. Fusion power starts to become economically attractive at marginal cost levels between 32 and 67 ECU/tCO₂. The economic potential of fusion power appears to be relatively insensitive to changes in assumptions with respect to competing technologies and fusion power itself, as well as availability of natural gas, and discount rate. Fusion power is not indispensable to obtain substantial CO₂ reduction, if need would be.

However, it is difficult to indicate alternatives to fusion power. Experience with fission power as we know it today has been troublesome. Technical breakthroughs that would simultaneously solve the issues of safety, hazards of actinides, and risk of proliferation are to be awaited. Coal-fired power with CO₂ separation and geological sequestration is not yet a full-grown option. Due to depletion of fossil fuel resources and scarcity of cheap geological CO₂ sequestration, it will not be a lasting alternative to fusion power.

Renewables - hydro, biomass, wind, photovoltaic power - could make substantial inroads in the power generation market. However, wind and solar energy are intermittent energy sources, which cannot substitute base-load power options like fusion power.

ECN Policy Studies has carried out this study under a contract of the European Union, DG XII, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, and the Dutch Ministry of Education, Culture, and Science.

This report gives an overview of power generation options in the MARKAL model for Western Europe. This model has been used for the evaluation of the economic potential of fusion power in Western Europe in the 21st century. Such an evaluation was part of the so-called SERF programme of the European Union (DG XII). The economic potential of fusion power, as analysed by ECN Policy Studies, is reported in the macro task SE0, which addresses long term scenarios. The present report describes the power generation options included in the model of the Western European energy system, on behalf of macro task E1, cost of fusion. The cost data are expressed as ECU of the year 1995.

ECN Policy Studies has carried out this study under a contract of the European Union, DG XII, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, and the Dutch Ministry of Education, Culture, and Science.

This report gives an overview of the issues influencing the availability of land for bio-energy and material purposes. The issues taken into account are land use trends, the agricultural policy of the EU and trends in consumption patterns and productivity. The land availability prospects for the EU + EFTA are analysed within two scenarios. The first sustainable driven and the second technology driven. Further a high and low meat consumption scenario are distinguished. Land availability in 2050 is between 0 and 26 million hectare depending on the scenario chosen.

This study has been performed as part of the BRED project (Biomass for Greenhouse Gas REDuction, ECN project 7.7125). This study analyses the land availability for biomass as part of the assessment of several biomass related aspects.